Analysis of the Chinese Economy

No.1 The slow growth of Chinese exports trade as the gloomy world economy.(出口) Recently, changes of the demography, the factor price, supply and environmental protection will increase the cost of Chinese exports. On the other hands, the recovery of the U.S economic remains slow, also the continuing escalation of the European debt crisis and the slow recovery of the global economy leading the result of the slow growth of Chinese export trade.

Facing the situation, Chinese government should do more help to improve the development of the business in terms of the alleviating the financial pressure, solving the trade friction and perfecting the safeguard mechanism of exportation credit risk. At the same time, keep the corresponding import policy to promote the balance of the foreign trade.

No.2 The aging population in China probably leads to a lack of labor force for economic development.(人力) Next, not only in China and even the world, the aging of the population is a severe factor for the economic development. According to the prediction, the rate of the aging of the population will reach approximately 30% in the next few years. As we probably know, the population means the labor in economics and the labor force is vital for the development of the national economy.

Lack in the labor force will definitely leads some negative effects to the economy. In order to ensure the financial sustainability, it’s better for the Chinese government raise the age of the retirement for men and women gradually in the coming years.

No.3 The transformation of the Chinese government function.(政府角色) The role of the Chinese government ought to be transferred to do some macroeconomic control more efficiently rather than implemented more direct preventions in some industries and businesses. However, what the government should do indeed is to focus more attention on how to formulate some practical economic policies. Plus, there is a decreasing of the marginal value of the government revenue in China currently.(土地财政) In order to get enough capital for the government operation, the government also needs to provide more public goods in China or do cooperation with other countries in the aspect. Only by taking these actions can the Chinese government make more contributions to the internal and external economy.

No.4 China will play an indispensable role in the high development of the global economy.(技术) Nowadays, it is the unifying movement of the global market economy and the gradual expansion of the global trade that leave more chances for the emerging country like China

. Specifically, China is expected to play a more important role in the global market and able to get an increasing investment opportunities and foreign trades in the coming years. Technology innovation, which is one of the most vital factors for the economic development, can be applied to almost every step during the social transformation time. In the long term, China should attaché more importance to the development of the service industry and keeps the improvement of the modern industry during the process of the urbanization and prompting the economic restructure (export, investment, consumption). 政府的角度:

合约(产权和使用权分离) 收税费,以获取利益大化 政府同级别之间的竞争

主线是政府action!!!! 政府的规模越来越大,从参与市场到主要提供公共品的转变。 政府原来规模没有很大,所以一些参与是体现为有效地,但是慢慢的扩大了,规模变大了,对市场经济的干预多了就不那么有利了,所以要转变职能!!