Demographic: According to the census from INEGI in 2010 (Mexicos Census bureau) , Mexicos had an estimaded population of 112,322,757 habitants, being the eleventh most populous nation in the world, and the most populous Spanish-speaking country in the world. Having a positive annual percent change in its population of 1. 086% (2012 est. ), the contry is having a surplus from births over deaths, factor that determines the needs of its people for Infrastructure. fertility rates in the country have declined for the past years ,such that the number of children per household has dropped from 2. 4 in 1990 to 1. 7 in 2010.
Factor that may detonate a middle class growth as a result of economical surplus in Mexican families. In the next 20 years mexico will be reaching the cusp of the Demographic Bonus also know as the demographic window wich is defined as the period of time in a nation’s demographic evolution when the proportion of population of working age group is particularly prominent. By analising the structure of the demography, it is observed that 50% of the population is 26 years old or Less. Meaning that for the next 20 years all of these people will incorporate to the work class , requaring jobs, houses , education etc.
If adecuate oportunities are given to them they may transit to adulthood and contribute significantly to the country? s development. For the next 20 years more than 11. 3 million new houses will be demanded by the population in adition its important to consider the actual housing deficit of 9 million units . meaning that in total the required amount of construction of new houses is arround 20 million units with these understanding that cities will grow almos twice their actual size requiring enourmous amounts of infrastructure, being positive for tododren? s overview.. Demographic age structure Economical:
Four years from the outbreak of financial crisis of 2008 considered by many economists the worst crisis since the great depression of the 1930’s. The world’s economy is still struggling to overcome the negative effects and recover. The stress in the environment generated by the sickness of big and developed economies such as the US and the EU may affect developing countries growth. Mexico has been one of the few contries that has recuperated rapid and steadildy from the crisis. But macroeconomicly certain factors are aligning, waving positive sings; past January the US congress approved a fiscal policy deal that avoided the “fiscal cliff”.
A term used to describe the effects of the Budget Control Act of 2011 that intended to increase taxes to workers and business, end with the bush tax cuts, and start the spending cuts agreed as part of the debt ceiling deal. As well in the Eurozone we see troubled countries focusing on reducing budget deficits as part of their fiscal policy strategies and as part of the requirement of the European Central Bank for a rescue plans, reducing in a certain way the uncertainty felt in the past months about European countries probability on going into default.
If the United States recovery remains, important exporting economies will face modest growth. China, India, and Mexico are some examples of countries that reduced growth rates in the past year as a result of weak export demand. Even though china’s perspective of growth isn’t as optimistic as in the past , the markets seem calm as the mayor deceleration risk have been diminished. An economic outlook from the United Nations projects in a conservative analysis a global growth of 3. 5% for this 2013 in comparison with a 3. 2% for the 2012.
Mexico for the past years has adopted conservative fiscal and monetary policies that allowed to overcome unfavorable crisis conditions. starting with a small budget deficit near the -2. 4% of GDP and a relative small public debt of 35%, a large amount of international reserves, a useful utility for times of crisis which may serve to regulate imbalances in the exchange rates or to strengthen the trust of the peso. for Mexico , it is expected as other developing countries to grow in a slow but stable rate as a result of the U.
S. economic recovery that entails the increase in demand , representing around 80% of total mexican exports . according to IMF and BBVA outlooks, the expected GDP growth for mexico would be near 3. 1% for 2013 , with a slight reduction of unemployment due to recoveries in the manufacturing sectors , and a controlled inflation below 4%. As well it is to mention outstanding economical growth rates may be possible for the next years if some strucural changes are passed to congress. Socio cultural.
In the past years mexico has experieced significant changes in its social distribution. Few years ago mexico had two classes (poor & rich) that clasified the mayority of the population but now we find a strong developing middle class . various indicators are evidence of the transformation taking place: commerce expansion , citytraffic, types of employment, home sales, the proportion of women in the workforce (doble income), and tourism, among others. According to a worlds bank study 17 % of mexicos population has incorporated to the middle class in the past decade.
rate that is expected to increase or continue for the next years. For the past twelve years , we have observe big expansion in cities , people that recieved the salarys minimun wage were granted mortage credits by a goverments institution, allowing them to purchage their own houses. In the actuality many people are still taking advantage of their mortage credit and are buying houses . Technological : Many research state that sewage will change drastically in the future, as a result of requirment for better resources managment.
The final Sludge obtained from the treatment of waste water may be so useful that some day raw sewage will be kept in the instalation or building and processed there to obtain plenty of benefits such as electric generation. Even though plastic is one of the best material in actuality , it is expected that R&D eventually will find better processes or materials that may change completly the production of pipes. A perfect example is the recent discovery of a material called Graphene, that could be used in multiple activites because of its caracteristcs such as lighweight , resistance , conductivity among others.
Graphene sheets perforated by small holes have first been explored by researchers at MIT as potential candidates for water filtration. Ecological : Research suggests that in the XXI century, water will be the main cause of conflict Global trends in the actuality have are not showing positive scenario, while climate change will alter the geographic availability of water. Mexico does have enourmous quantity of water , but it hasent been able to take adavantage of the resoursce. Half of the contry (south) has continuos problems with floods meanwhile the other half of the contry ( North) has contiuos droughts.
For the next years is expected to observe high quantities of investment on infrastructure for water managment, including integral sewage treatment plants in many cities , storm water colection systems , etc. Historial ecological disasters, having big quantities of raw sewage disposed in rivers , or underground caused by cracked pipes, have opened the eyes from federal institutions, who recently have implemented new certificactions and requirements for sewage pipe products in order to obtain better quality sewage pipes.
Political: Since the political transition that took place last december in 2012 optimism has been felt all around the world. Starting Pena Nieto presidency, rarely seen agreements between the major political parties have been made, discussing over the the structural reforms required to detonate development , diminish poverty and unemployment. Since the transition, the country has experiece negative economical effects as a result of a weak goverment spenditure.
Analist expect these tendency to change in short term, as the goverments executives take complete control over institutions. recently the government has changed the housing construction policies , and as a result we have observe a significant reduction of activity in the housing sector. In two year, the five major housing companies shares, have lost around 80% of value in the BMV (Mexican stock Market ). With this uncertainty in the industry, construction has noted a decrease in investment tendecy that will change rapidly detonating infastructure investments again.
BIBLIOGRAPHY: Bussines Monitor International (BMI) , Economic Outlook – Q3 2013 CUAL ES EL FUTURO DEL AGUA? , AYD DE MONTERREY S. A . DE C. V Former finance ministers see bright economic future ? for Mexico — if Congress finally passes economic reforms , Pedro Aspe, Francisco Gil , Mexicos prespective. Demographic transition , demographic bonus and ageing in mexico , virgiolio partida bush , national council on population , mexico , UN.