The HSBC Trade Forecast highlights India’s critical role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030. As per the Forecast, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets. India’s trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.
‘Dual speed’ growth driven by South-South trade The HSBC Trade Forecast is outlining a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015. before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade. According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years.
As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets. By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.
Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast: * India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest import or export growth partner out to 2020. * Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly. India will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with export growth averaging 20% a year during 2013-15 and 17% a year during 2016-20. Meanwhile, Indiaexports to China are set to grow 23% between 2013-15 and 19% in 2016-20. * South south trade continues to show up as a trend.
Brazil’s fastest growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico’s imports from India and China will grow 13. 9% and 13. 4% respectively between 2016 – 2020. * Indonesia exports to the rest of Asia (ex-Japan) are expected to grow at a solid pace of close to 10% a year over the period 2021-30. The fastest growing trade routes will be to India and China over the medium term (2013-2015), led by their insatiable demand for commodities. * Singapore’s exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by a fairly robust 7% a year on average during 2021-30.
But the fastest growing trade routes will be with China, India and Vietnam over this period. * Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking ’emerging Asia’, driven by trade growth with India throughout the period. Bangladesh’s trade is expected to increase 19% between 2013-2015 and 14% between 2016 -2020. * Malaysia is forecast to see strong growth to Latin America in the years to 2020, at approximately 9% in the period 2016-20, underpinned by a greater sophistication in the products imported by the continent, particularly in electronic goods.
Malaysia’sexports to Brazil are predicted to grow 14% annualised over the same period. * Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth throughout the forecast period 2012-30. China will have overtaken the US as Vietnam’s largest export partner by 2030 but the US, Japan and Korea will remain key sources of demand for Vietnam. * Australia’s main export markets are in Asia, and this will continue. Australia’s exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to grow by 6% a year in 2013-15. * Hong Kong’s total exports are forecast to double from 4.
8% in 2012 to 11. 4% annually throughout 2013-2015. Although China will remain Hong Kong’s most important trading partner, other developing East Asian nations will become increasingly important, with exports to Vietnam set to grow by 8% a year in the decade to 2030. http://www. prnewswire. com/news-releases/india-predicted-to-be-fastest-growing-trade-market-till-2020–hsbc-global-trade-forecast-181977161. html Largest TNCs in Infrastructure Companies from developing economies (in green) now key players