Crime Forecasting

Tactical crime analysis is a technique employed in crime forecasting that involves breaking down patterns of high-priority criminal acts through the use of substantial information (crime rate, historical data of suspects and their respective crimes, profile of suspects, usual victims and places where crimes occur) that might provide guidance in forecasting all the attributes of future criminal actions for the formulation of anti-crime tactics and strategies leading to crime prevention.

(CPD, 2008) Police reports are highly instrumental in crime forecasting, especially in tactical analysis, because it contains an extensive amount of information and statistics that may be synthesized with previous information for efficient forecasting and implementation of law enforcement. Police reports include highly significant information that is useful for crime forecasting.

These reports include all details pertaining to crimes, answering the date when the crime happened, the place, the profile of the suspect and the victim, how the crime happened, what events took place before, during, and after the crime, what are the results or the indemnities caused by the crime, and what actions did the law enforcement take as a response to the crime. Tactical analysis should make use of police reports because they provide all information needed by crime forecasters to determine crime patterns.

Information from police reports answer questions in tactical analysis such as “what crimes are common,” “where do they usually happen,” “what month, day of the week, or time of day do crimes usually take place,” “how do suspects enact the crime,” “who are the likely suspects,” “who are the likely victims,” etc. Crime forecasters only need to sort out police reports, investigate it one by one, analyze graphs and statistical data, and then interpret them in order to arrive at conclusions.

Once this step is accomplished, and all the relevant data are in place, crime forecasters need to work with the law enforcement agency in order to formulate crime prevention plans and measures to lessen crime rate. Perhaps the hardest part of crime forecasting is the ascertaining criminal patterns and employing crime prevention methods and techniques based on interpretation of police results, especially with limited raw materials and resources.

For instance, how will crime forecasters assure that specific places identified need law enforcement supervision and monitoring, without overlooking other areas, given the scenario that there is limited law enforcement manpower. The most challenging part is framing the conclusion itself and finalizing the crime forecast because of the risks and uncertainties. References CPD. (2008). “Crime Analysis. ” Retrieved August 11, 2008, from Columbia Police Department. Website: http://www. columbiapd. com/cpd_033. htm