Review Lubricating Oil Viet nam market in 2012 and forwarding 2013 ————————————————-In 2012, Viet Nam GDP increased 5.2%, showed lowest after a decade of increasing continuously to 8.3% from 2003-2007 and over 6% from 2008-2011. The economic seem to be exhausted by a long periodic with highest inflation and bank rate interest in the world. Lubricant industrial was affected, but it show some signals recovery and development in 2013. ————————————————-
+ In 2012, total consumption lubricants and grease reached 310KT with 79% of transportation lube, 19% of industrial lube and 2% grease. Around 80% total were produced (blended) local with including international brand name: Shell, BP-Castrol, Total, Chevron and local brand Petrolimex (PLC), Vilube/Motul, SaigonPetrol (SP),…and the rest 20% imported by independent brand like GS(Korea), Valvoline (US, produced in Singapore), BlackGold (Singapore),…
+ Estimating everage 4.3% development rate of Viet nam lubricants market from 2010 to 2015. After year of recession economic, we forecast only 3% increasing total consumption with 320KT, concentrated on areas industrialised around of Hanoi anh Ho Chi Minh city. Rate 55% in South, 30% in North and 15% in Central and Highland were listed in consumption.
So, most of blending plant were established in South: Shell, BP-Castrol, Total/Mobil, SP, PLC, Vilube/Motul,…But Chervon and Idemitsu Kosan (under construction) located on North. Another plant of Vinacomin branded Cominlube launched 2KT for internal group companies of mining exploration in 2012 in North.
+Last year, BP-Castrol dominated to 21% market share. The second was Total with 13% after acquisition Mobil plant and he network and successful unify Lubmarine (Elf) from PLC. PLC listed 11% that will Shell’s target in 2013 after gaining 8% and 9% in 2010, 2011. With ambition double market next few years, Shell will strongly change in strategy but now it is only trying to widen covering by competitive price among international brand.
Some local brands like Nikko, Mekonglub, Solube,..lost their market share after period time chasing to cheap price with low quality. But SP increased market share quickly up to 6% by balance to quality and price. Agip disappeared by high price strategy but BlackGold rised with professional network building. ————————————————-
+ Distribution network is key to identify success of delivery products to end users. Impressed presentation of Castrol with almost garages, repaired/washed shopes in all urban areas bonused to 35% market share of Motocycle Oil and PCMO. On the contrary, Total, Shell, Chevron are continuous looking for a stable network for Automotive segment. Some brands are deep into confusion in distribution network due to her unloyalty.
They could easy change another brand to more margin earning, wider territorial offer and they could combine many brands with full of segments from cheap to expensive products. Forecasting, in 2013, market is a fighting to pull distributors by much of previlegde offer on negotiation. ————————————————-
+With DIFM (Do-it-for-me) behavior characteristic, customers continue give chance to brands which full covering of retail shop like BP-Castrol, Shell,…And genuine oil Honda, Yamaha in MCO/PCMO. But in industrial oil (IO) or marine oil segments, distributors remain a conveniece channel to launder money by corruption in purchasing.
+ In 2013, Viet nam Lubricants market keep a bull market by high margin supporting of stable in price base oil forecasted to mid of year. Customers accept high price in believing to quality. Many promotion campains to support distributors selling stock. But some independent brands like GS, BlackGold, price will be decreased by FMCG managing concept with flexible stock and price. Market will enough to all players but sustainable profit and market share are up to his master. ————————————————-
(Researched by Blackgold group and individial view of Lubricants specialist)